Australia should expect Donald Trump to question the AUKUS submarine pact but he is likely to eventually back it when he sees its value to the US, according to the former head of America’s largest intelligence agency.
Admiral Mike Rogers, who headed the National Security Agency during Mr Trump’s first term and who worked closely with the then president, says Australia must prepare to make the case about key aspects of its alliance with the US to the transactional new president. This includes the AUKUS plan to buy Virginia-class submarines from the US, a plan that has received pushback from some Republicans who will now control both the Senate and the house.
“I do believe the new president is going to ask the following question: Tell me what value AUKUS generates for the US,” Admiral Rogers told The Australian in an exclusive interview in Adelaide.
“I think there’s a good case to be made: Hey, look, we’re seeing jobs, we’re seeing capital, flow into the US … it sends a broader message to the entire region about the commitment of Australia, the US and Great Britain to the Indo-Pacific and it clearly signals to China we intend to be strong players,” he said.
“Those are all positives but I do expect he will not come in with a view of ‘Well, of course, it’s the thing to do. It’s what my predecessor wanted.’ That’s not the way, in my experience, he normally works. But I do believe that ultimately he will accept it, in part because I think he can make a pretty compelling case that is generating value for the US.”
Admiral Rogers said Australia would also need to make its case to the incoming president about why it should be exempted from his new plan to impose 10 per cent on all imports into the US, just as Australia did to avoid Mr Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs in 2018.
“He has shown in the past a willingness on a case-by-case basis, if there can be a compelling argument – but the compelling argument often has to include, how would this benefit the US?’
Admiral Rogers said believed Mr Trump would begin his second term with greater confidence about what was possible to achieve because he had a better understanding of how the system worked. He said Mr Trump’s appointments so far in his new administration were people he knew personally and people who he knew backed the mandate for change that he won from the electorate.
“(They are) reflective of his ideology and his view, president Trump’s view of the world,” said Admiral Rogers, who is in Adelaide to speak at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference on Friday.
“He’s less interested in what’s your pedigree, what’s your CV? That doesn’t seem to be the biggest factor. If you look at his appointments, his view to me is ‘Look, I’ve just been given a mandate to make significant changes and so I’m going to start off in a way that will enable me to make changes within the structure much quicker, much more efficiently’.”
As a former head of the NSA, Admiral Rogers concedes Mr Trump is sceptical about aspects of the US intelligence community, which he calls a part of the “deep state”.
“He truly believes there are elements working in the government, who are actively opposed to (his) vision, who are trying to defeat his initiatives. And he starts this term with a view of ‘I’m going to make sure there’s people in place who understand my ideology or my viewpoint, who are committed to executing that viewpoint’.”
Admiral Rogers said in his previous dealings with the then president, he never felt any pressure from Mr Trump to tailor intelligence assessments in any way and he said the agencies were able to make their own assessments in the correct manner. “That’s the way our system works,” he said.
This article was originally posted by The Australian here.
Licensed by Copyright Agency. You must not copy this work without permission.
